League member and senior brother of the Saundi dynasty, Jack Saunders talks statistics and financial management.....no, seriously!
I’ve always been one for early transfers (as in before the current gameweek ends) because I normally start with a 100mil team and need to make the most of transfers before any price rises happen.
This season is no different having strongly believed Chelsea would start well and City might struggle until GW4, the need to bring in City players early seems logical.
Here is what I know (or think to know)
· Price rises happen over night (2-3am-ish)– so make transfers before midnight to be safe.
· Price rises occur based (primarily) on ownership levels, so if a player’s net ownership increases by a certain value (say 10,000) they will increase 0.1m overnight.
· A player can rise a maximum of 0.3m in a single gameweek (note after the first rise of 0.1m the ownership level has to increase more for another rise i.e. it won’t need another 10k more like 20k)
· There are many other factors affecting rises, it’s not quite as simple as ownership rise but there are a few twitter accounts that regularly post the likely risers and fallers each day with about 90% accuracy.
· You have to own a player that rises 0.2m in order to profit from them. For example you had Kompany from gameweek 16.0m, he rises to 6.1m, you sell him but only get 6.0m #balls. If you kept Kompany until now 6.2m and sold him you would get 6.1m. So every 0.2m rise equates to 0.1m profit for you (if you sell).
So this is why I don’t wait until couple hours before deadline to make transfers because you will never make the most of price rises.
However, I have been caught out a couple of times using this method.
1. Rage transferring
Watching a player underperform, score 100 own goals, gets 4 red cards etc. in the Saturday early kick off, get pissed immediately transfer him out.
2. General Early Transferring
Have a plan to bring a player in, after seeing the games Saturday/Sunday make a decision on who to transfer in/out etc.
In both scenarios, Friday comes around and the player you transfer in breaks his legs in a freak accident involving slippery frogs and guacamole. You’ve wasted your free transfer(s)/ already taken point hits etc. and are left with an unplayable 11m player #bigballs. E.g. Zarate has been transferred in by 41k at time of writing, presumably as West Ham play Bournemouth, and just tweeted he is injured for a couple weeks.
You need to make a decision to either transfer early to make the most of price rises or don’t make transfers until close to the deadline to have as much chance as possible of knowing who is likely to play etc.
I’ve always been an early wildcarder – hitting the button within the first 2-6 weeks of the season. To make the wildcard most worthwhile you want to use it as soon as the previous week closes. For example – I have used mine this week and immediately changed my team whilst watching the United game on Friday night. I brought in all the players set to rise that evening and kept tinkering with the team on Saturday/Sunday bringing in other players that were set to rise. Now I have a few players that have already risen 0.1m and if they are to rise again I will be able to cash them out for 0.1m higher than I paid for them. Especially effective if I don’t want them in my team come an hour before this weeks deadline. If not, considering they are on they rise they are the form players in FPL and you probably want them in your team anyway, and can cash in on the rises later on in the season.
Owner of Killin in the Neymar & Neymar’s Alive (doing considerably worse so far than I have in every previous years)
Or as Tom called me the other day Jackary Sagna